In a welcome development for UK consumers, George Weston, CEO of Associated British Foods (ABF), owner of brands like Kingsmill bread, Twinings tea, and Silver Spoon sugar, has predicted that food inflation could be all but gone by Easter 2024, assuming no further global disruptions.

Weston’s optimistic outlook stems from recent declines in the prices of key ingredients, including cereals and edible oils. While inflation persists in certain commodities like sugar, tomatoes, and onions, these reductions are expected to trickle down to various products, including poultry.

This optimistic forecast aligns with industry data showing that UK food price inflation has dropped to single digits for the first time since July 2022. Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar, attributes this decline to a combination of factors, including retailers’ efforts to soften the blow for shoppers through promotions and deals.

Weston also noted that inflation on clothing is subsiding. Primark, ABF’s budget clothing chain, saw an 8.5% increase in sales in the year to 16 September, but profits dipped by 2.8% due to an average 8% price hike. While labor costs remain a concern, Weston expressed confidence that falling transportation and material costs, including cotton, will offset these increases.

Despite the lingering cost of living crisis, Weston observed that recent pay rises have moved ahead of inflation, suggesting that “maybe the worst is behind lots of families.” This sentiment is echoed in the strong sales Primark has experienced since the onset of colder weather.

Weston further commented that the threat of excessive stock has diminished, reducing pressure for pre-Christmas discounting. Instead, consumers are spreading their festive spending to ease the financial burden. Primark’s Christmas collections are performing well, with Christmas jumper sales up 40% compared to last year.

Looking ahead, Primark’s growth will be fueled by the expansion of its retail space, with a third of the new openings slated for the US and the rest in Europe. The chain has benefited from the demise of rivals like Debenhams and Topshop, which have vacated the high street for online sales.

However, Weston raised concerns about the doubling of shoplifting incidents at Primark, which is partly attributed to organized gangs. Retailers like John Lewis have also highlighted this issue.

In conclusion, Weston’s prediction of significantly reduced food inflation by Easter offers a glimmer of hope for UK consumers grappling with rising living costs. While challenges remain, including labor costs and organized shoplifting, the outlook appears to improve.